How would the possible Grexit hit commodities?
By Hamza Khan, senior commodity strategist at ING
The Greek government’s decision to hold a referendum
on the latest creditor package shocked the bond and equity markets. Should
there be similar fundamental or financial shocks for commodity prices?
From a fundamental perspective, no. Greece as an economy
contributes 0.4% of global GDP and its largest impact on the commodity markets
– shipping – is unlikely to see disruptions as a result of the referendum.
The financial, or theoretical, perspective is different. We
believe the fear of contagion and impact on currency markets will be felt most
acutely in gold, crude oil and the base metals.
For gold, the rush to a safe, tangible commodity has an
obvious appeal. During the global financial crisis in 2009, global gold ETF
holdings increased by 623 tonnes, nearly double the 321 tonnes added in 2008
and nearly two and half times the previous five year average of 260 tonnes. In
2010, when the Euro crisis emerged, central banks increased gold investments
from 77 tonnes in 2010 to 457 tonnes in 2011 and sent prices close to $2,000/Ounce.
European gold ETF holdings also doubled from about 500 tonnes in
2010 to about 1,000 tonnes in 2012 before falling back to about 600 tonnes in 2014. The
caveat for gold is that USD strength and expectations for a US rate hike have
pulled investors towards interest or coupon bearing assets. If the Grexit
crisis becomes global, gold could rally above $1,200 per ounce. If the crisis
is confined to Europe and the US equities recover, the higher dollar could lead
to a test of the $1,150 floor seen recently.
The currency impact is also key for crude oil, as a rally in
USD engenders proportionate adjustment in USD denominated crude oil prices.
Since June 2014, an 18% appreciation in USD has pushed crude oil prices down by
46% (or 2.5x as much) and we expect crude oil weakness in similar proportion if
the Euro softens further. Although other fundamental factors are supportive to
the oil prices (including improved demand, low shale oil supply); the dollar
looks king in the short term.
For the base metals (aluminium and copper), downward
revisions in European growth would translate into lower demand for Chinese and
Japanese goods which will in turn have a negative impact on industrial metals
demand. Europe takes nearly 16% of China’s merchandise exports and remains a
major end user for Cu and Al. As the recent sell-off in Asian equities has
demonstrated, industrial demand appears to be at a precipice and a collapse in
Eurozone confidence could push base metals significantly lower.
All told, we cannot predict the ultimate outcome of the
Greek referendum, but believe it will be a key driver for prices of gold, oil
and the base metals.
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