Fed rate increase could come sooner than you think
By Bluford Putnam, chief economist, CME Group
What would
change the mind of the members of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee
(FOMC) to move forward a decision to abandon the near-zero short-term rate
policy?
The answer comes not from data forecasts of higher potential
inflation or more jobs growth and lower unemployment rates, although these are
certainly possible catalysts that could change FOMC thinking.
As we read the tea leaves of Fed-speak and
analyse the emerging culture of the Yellen-Fed, we are struck by a
growing desire to get back to traditional policy-making and to leave well
behind the emergency policies of the Bernanke-Fed and the legacy of the
financial panic of 2008.
There is little doubt that emergency policies were needed in the
90 days following the badly managed bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and very messy bailout of AIG in September 2008.
And, once
QE ends in October 2014, as seems likely, then the next decision point for the
Fed is whether to return to a more traditional version of short-term rate
policy. Indeed, we would argue that
negative real short-term rates – that is, short-term rates that remain below
the prevailing rate of inflation for a sustained period of time – represent an
emergency policy, just like QE, that is increasingly being perceived as
inappropriate for a growing economy.
A more
traditional, non-emergency approach, yet still accommodative for the economy,
would be for the central bank to encourage short-term rates to be more or less
equal to the prevailing rate of core inflation.
There is
another way to look at the debate inside the Fed and why it seems to be
shifting. The policy discussion is no
longer just about whether headline unemployment data hide some residual slack
in labour markets, as Yellen suggests, or whether rising food inflation
eventually will filter into core inflation.
What is
coming under more and more scrutiny is whether the Fed, or any central bank for
that matter, should be treating an economy as fragile and ready to collapse,
when it has run-off essentially five years of modest economic growth since the
recovery started in Q3 2009.
Under this
logic, QE had to end as soon as possible, and the Yellen Fed is achieving that.
The follow-on policy step, is that monetary policy may still remain relatively
accommodative but it should not do so any more with negative real short-term
rates – a clearly emergency-type policy measure.
As the
voices for a return to traditional policy-making (based on the fundamental
perspective that the U.S. economy is neither fragile nor ready to collapse)
take greater hold on the psychology of more regional Fed Presidents and Fed
board members, then the Yellen Fed could easily choose to start the slow
process of encouraging incrementally higher short-term rates at either the
January or March 2015 FOMC meeting.
The
objective might be just to get short-rates up to the level of core inflation by
year-end 2015. Moreover, such a policy
shift could easily be reconciled with Yellen’s view that there is still some
residual labour market slack, since even if short-rates were roughly the same
as the core inflation rate, such a monetary policy would still be characterised
as accommodative, just not an emergency accommodative policy.
Content belongs to CME Group and Open Markets. For the original please visit: http://openmarkets.cmegroup.com/8767/fed-rate-increase-could-come-sooner-than-you-think
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